After 10-15 Years, Every Asset Faces the Question:
Repower or Retire?
Performance degrades. Technology improves. PPAs expire. The repowering decision is one of the most consequential capital allocation choices you will make. SlideStrike gives you the NPV analysis your board needs to decide.
The Repowering Economics
The Inevitable Decline
Every asset degrades. The question is not if but when the decline makes repowering the smarter choice.
| Year | Performance | Visual | Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yr 1 | 100% | COD | |
| Yr 5 | 96% | - | |
| Yr 10 | 91% | - | |
| Yr 12 | 88% | PPA End? | |
| Yr 15 | 84% | Decision Point | |
| Yr 18 | 78% | - | |
| Yr 20 | 72% | - | |
| Yr 25 | 65% | End of Life |
The Decision Framework
Age and performance together determine your options. Here is how to think about it.
| Asset Age | Performance | Recommendation | CapEx vs Original | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-10 yr | >90% | CONTINUE | $0 | Strong performance, maximize PPA value |
| 10-15 yr | 80-90% | ANALYZE | Varies | Decision window - model scenarios |
| 10-15 yr | >90% | REPOWER | 40-60% | Strong site, extend 15-20 years |
| 15-20 yr | 70-85% | REPOWER | 50-70% | New tech, new PPA, new life |
| >20 yr | <70% | DECOMMISSION | Salvage | Release land for higher use |
| Any | Major failure | EVALUATE | Insurance? | Force majeure analysis |
The NPV That Settles the Argument
Stop debating. Model the scenarios. Let the numbers speak.
- +No upfront CapEx
- +Known performance
- +Existing PPA honored
- -Declining output
- -Higher O&M costs
- -No tech improvement
- +New 15-20yr life
- +Better technology
- +New PPA potential
- -Major CapEx
- -Permitting time
- -Construction risk
- +Release land value
- +No ongoing costs
- +Salvage/recycle
- -Write-off impact
- -Lost production
- -Decom costs
Questions from CEOs
About repowering economics
QHow does SlideStrike calculate the optimal repowering timing?
We model each asset using actual performance data, degradation curves, O&M cost trends, and current market conditions. The model compares NPV across Continue, Repower, and Decommission scenarios at different time horizons. You see exactly when repowering becomes the value-maximizing choice.
QWhat data do you need for accurate repowering analysis?
At minimum: asset age, technology type, current capacity factor, historical degradation, O&M costs, remaining PPA term, and site resource data. With SCADA integration, we can model more precisely using actual production curves and failure patterns.
QCan the analysis include new technology options?
Yes. For wind repowering, we model different turbine sizes (same footprint, higher capacity). For solar, we include bifacial upgrades, tracker retrofits, and battery additions. Each option gets its own NPV scenario with technology-specific cost curves.
Model Your Repowering Decision
NPV analysis your board can actually understand