Renewable Energy CEO

Merchant Exposure Is Upside Potential.
Until It Isn't.

Uncontracted capacity looks great when hub prices spike. But $20/MWh months destroy annual returns faster than $80/MWh months can save them. SlideStrike shows you the volatility your board needs to understand.

Hub Price Volatility (12 Months)

The swings your P&L actually feels

Hub Price ($/MWh)
Profitable
Breakeven
Loss
$30 breakeven
$42
Jan
$38
Feb
$28
Mar
$22
Apr
$18
May
$65
Jun
$82
Jul
$78
Aug
$35
Sep
$24
Oct
$55
Nov
$48
Dec
$82
12-Month High
$18
12-Month Low
4.5x
Price Swing

Contracted vs. Merchant Revenue Split

38%
At Risk
Contracted (62%)
Merchant (38%)
Contracted Revenue
$48.2M
Fixed price PPAs @ $42/MWh avg
Variance: +/- 3% (weather-driven)
Merchant Revenue
$29.6M
Spot market exposure @ $44/MWh avg
Variance: +/- 47% (price-driven)

Revenue Scenario Analysis

Bull / Base / Bear Case Revenues

Bull Case
$68/MWh avg
$52.8M
+78% vs Base
Base Case
$44/MWh avg
$29.6M
0% vs Base
Bear Case
$22/MWh avg
$14.8M
-50% vs Base
The Asymmetry Problem
Bull case adds $23.2M. Bear case loses $14.8M. But bear case happens 40% of the time.
Expected value of unhedged merchant: negative $2.1M/year

Questions from CEOs

About merchant hedging strategies

QHow does SlideStrike model merchant exposure risk?

We analyze your uncontracted capacity by node, forecast price volatility using historical patterns and forward curves, and calculate the revenue range under bull/base/bear scenarios. You see exactly how much revenue variability your portfolio carries.

QCan it recommend optimal hedge ratios?

Yes. SlideStrike models different hedging strategies—fixed PPAs, collars, swaps, CfDs—and shows the risk/return tradeoff for each. We help you find the sweet spot between locking in floor prices and maintaining upside exposure.

QHow do I present merchant risk to my board?

SlideStrike generates board-ready slides showing contracted vs. merchant revenue, scenario analysis, and hedging recommendations. Your board sees the full risk picture with actionable strategies—not just a warning about price volatility.

MANAGE THE GAMBLE

See Your Merchant Exposure Clearly

Scenario analysis and hedging recommendations in minutes

Real-time price volatility tracking
Scenario analysis modeling
Hedge ratio optimization
Board-ready risk presentations
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Because merchant upside without downside protection is just gambling with investor capital.